RESEARCH

Questions or comments?  Please e-mail MRF Research Director Marcel Gahbauer.

Hafoc's recent (January - March 2005) locations:

Hafoc's movements around Rochester, June - December 2004:

Hafoc's movements outside the Rochester area, 2004-2005:

Reports:

June 5, 2005:  
Rochester, NY.  After more than two months of wondering about Hafoc's fate, we are sorry to report that we have received confirmation of his death from biologist Michael Allen of the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation.  He reports that a homeowner in Rochester located Hafoc's body in late May, lying beneath a white pine near a roadside.  Hafoc's condition suggests that he suffered a vehicle collision, likely at the time that his transmitter suddenly fell silent in March.

Losing track of Hafoc after less than a year was disappointing in itself, but we had hoped that at least Hafoc might have survived.  However, the reality is that most raptors have a high first-year mortality rate, in which fewer than half of those which fledge successfully reach maturity.  Our preliminary analysis of a small sample of urban eastern Peregrine Falcons over the past decade actually indicates that first-year survival is only around 35%.  Low as this seems, it is well within the range historically quoted for Peregrine Falcons.  It therefore isn't a concern for the fate of the population, but it does mean that in research of this nature, the odds are 2:1 that the bird we pick will not survive its first year - and unfortunately this time we didn't beat those odds.

We were eagerly looking forward to learning whether Hafoc would finally move out of Rochester as the breeding season approached, but that mystery will forever remain.  While casual observers might believe that we learned little from a bird that never even flew out of state, that's far from true.  Staying close to Rochester might not have been so exciting for us to watch, but provided us with valuable data on the local dispersal movements of a wild urban juvenile - patterns which remain largely undocumented, but are potentially very significant in terms of understanding the dynamics and long-term sustainability of the new urban populations.  Hafoc was just one individual and we can't generalize to all Peregrine Falcons based on his behaviour, but it has given us a new appreciation for the winter movements of a non-migratory juvenile.

In this final update on Hafoc's page, we would like to take the opportunity to again thank our partners in this project, Eastman Kodak, the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, the Genesee Valley Audubon Society, and most importantly all of you who have provided moral and/or financial support for this research, and have shown such an interest in learning about the lives of Peregrine Falcons.  Stay tuned for news about other projects by checking the MRF news page for updates on all of our research programs. 

March 17, 2005:  
Rochester, NY.  From March 2 through March 5, Hafoc was fairly consistently in a small area on the north side of Rochester, in the area of Hwy 104 and the Genesee River.  This is the same location he has visited previously on January 30 and February 18.  Unfortunately, we have not received any reports from Hafoc's transmitter since the afternoon of March 5.

There are many possible explanations for this.  Of course the worst-case scenario is that the transmitter has been damaged/destroyed while still being worn Hafoc.  For an urban bird (especially one that has been observed feeding on the ground in recent months) the possibility of vehicle collisions certainly exists.  However, there are many other plausible explanations.  The transmitter harness was designed to fall off eventually, and it could be that it did so much sooner than intended.  If the transmitter falls off and lands in a place where the solar panels can't be recharged, there would be silence like we are experiencing.  Alternatively, the transmitter may have suffered a premature failure, as sometimes happens without warning.  Given the multiple information relays involved, it is also possible that the transmitter continues to function, but the message is being lost somewhere else along the way - we are checking into this.  

At this point, we have no evidence supporting any of these scenarios, but are investigating all possibilities.  For those in the area, please keep an eye out for Hafoc, and report any possible sightings to us.  Since it is possible other immature peregrines are in the area (either siblings of Hafoc from last summer, or unrelated birds now moving through the area on migration), try to look for leg bands, and note as much detail as possible.  Thank you for your assistance; we will provide updates as they become available.

March 2, 2005:  
Rochester, NY.  As spring approaches, Hafoc remains around Rochester.  Most of his recent locations have been between the city and Lake Ontario, ranging from Greece in the west to a bit beyond Irondequoit in the east.  He returned to the Cobb's Hill area southeast of Rochester yesterday, but today was back to the north again.

February 20, 2005:  
Rochester, NY.  The most recent report from Hafoc came in late on February 18, from the same location he was at on January 30, roughly 5 kilometres north of Rochester, and a bit east of the Genesee River.  This report is the strongest we have received in a while, indicating both a high precision regarding this location, and a general recharging of the batteries as the days get longer and the solar panels receive more exposure to the sun again.  

February 13, 2005:  
Rochester, NY.  As mid-February approaches, Hafoc continues to move restlessly around the perimeter of Rochester.  Over the past two weeks, he has ranged in most directions - north on the 1st, south on the 4th, central on the 5th, northwest on the 7th, southwest on the 8th, northeast on the 12th, and finally southeast today!  During this period Hafoc has also been seen on the ground with prey near Greece on February 7, and 'heard' in the Brighton area earlier today by Dick Holbert, listening for Hafoc's signal with his radio receiver.

January 30, 2005:  
Southwest Rochester, NY.  Over the past week, reports have from Hafoc have started to come in for frequently again, presumably a reflection of the gradually lengthening days and especially the greater number of sunny days experienced recently.  Not surprisingly though, the data have only reinforced what we already know, that Hafoc is hanging around Rochester, moving around the perimeter of the city with little clear preference for any one spot.  As of this afternoon, he was again on the north side, but a couple of days ago he was off to the southwest in the direction of the airport, and the day before that, off to the northwest again.  

January 19, 2005:  
South Rochester, NY.  On January 14, Hafoc returned to virtually the same spot south of Rochester where he was roughly two months earlier, on November 12.  The following day he was back on the northeast side of the city, close to his August 27 position.  Two more recent positions have been received, from the southwest side of Rochester, but both were of very poor quality, so it may be that Hafoc isn't bouncing around the perimeter quite that much.

More than half a year has passed, and aside from a couple of brief and relatively (for a peregrine) short side trips to other parts of New York state, Hafoc has remained remarkably faithful to Rochester.  It's unlikely that he will make any substantial move in the midst of winter, so we are likely to see similar patterns for at least another month or two.  At that point, we will watch with particular interest to see whether Hafoc continues to remain near home, or strikes off in search of a territory and mate.

While it would have been fascinating to track Hafoc to a series of exotic (and warm!) locales in the Caribbean and beyond, learning about his local movements over the course of his first year is equally valuable.  Although Hafoc is just one bird, and we must be cautious in the conclusions we draw from his behaviour, it seems unlikely that he is entirely unique in his decision not to migrate.  Rather, it suggests that both in Rochester and elsewhere, at least a portion of the young produced do not disperse far within their first year.  To our knowledge, there have been no sightings of Hafoc since mid-summer in which his band numbers were confirmed, thus satellite telemetry has been critical in allowing us to determine his residency.  It may seem like a small detail to know that a young peregrine has remained close to home for 8 months, but such information is still very rare, and allows us to consider various theories about population structure and size, as well as resource availability.  We hope that Hafoc will continue to provide us tidbits of insight into peregrine biology in the months to come. 

January 10, 2005:  
Hilton, NY.  Winter's reduced hours of daylight continue to limit the quantity and quality of reports from Hafoc.  Some data with very questionable accuracy came from the Cobb's Hill area east of Rochester on January 4, and yesterday afternoon a more reliable transmission came in from a couple of kilometres southeast of Hilton, on the northwest side of Rochester. 

December 29, 2004:  
South Rochester, NY.  As the year draws toward a close, Hafoc remains around Rochester.  Yesterday afternoon he was a couple of kilometres southwest of the city centre along Highway 33; on Christmas Eve he was about the same distance away, but south along the Genesee River.  The only more significant movement we've seen recently was an apparent flight northwest to the Lake Ontario shoreline around Kendall on December 20.  However, the data that day were flagged as being of low accuracy, so it may be that Hafoc wasn't in fact that far away from Rochester after all.

December 16, 2004:  
South Rochester, NY.  A bit of sunshine the past couple of days brought Hafoc's transmitter back toward full strength, and allowed us to get a series of reports indicating that he's back in the Cobb's Hill area southeast of Rochester again.  Of course we have no idea where he has been on other days recently, but given that it has been a while since he was anywhere but near Rochester, it's probably a safe bet that his current location is fairly typical.

December 11, 2004:  
Rochester, NY.  Very little in the way of news from Hafoc over the past week.  In fact, the only relatively clear location identified was on December 4, along the Genesee River, just 100 metres north of the High Falls bridge near Kodak.  This would be the closest Hafoc has been to home in over two months, but given the statistical uncertainty involved with this report, it's possible he actually wasn't as close as that.

Looking at the voltage readings in the data, it appears that the dreary weather and short daylight hours have combined to limit the transmitter's ability to generate power from the solar cells.  As a result, the few locations that have come through have been of limited accuracy, and most days the voltage has been insufficient for the signal to reach the satellite at all.  Hopefully whenever the sun returns, Hafoc will sit in the open for a while to allow the batteries to fully recharge!

December 3, 2004:  
West Rochester, NY.  No rest for Hafoc!  After writing the update on November 30, we got the update from him that evening, only to learn he had returned to the Cobb's Hill area southeast of Rochester once more.  Then on December 2 he was back out on the west side of the city again, near the junction of highways 390 and 490.  As of this afternoon though, he was as close to 'home' as he has been in a long time, just 1.5 kilometres to the north of the nest box on the Kodak tower.

November 30, 2004:  
West Rochester, NY.  On Sunday, Hafoc reported to us again from the east side of Rochester, then the next day he was back within a couple of kilometres of the Lake Ontario shoreline, a bit west of Webster.  Interestingly, we just received word from the New York Department of Environmental Conservation that the last time he was in that area a month ago, he was spotted flying along the shoreline by an observer at Durand Eastman Beach on October 25, and the fact that he was wearing a transmitter and antenna was noticed and reported.

November 27, 2004:  
West Rochester, NY.  Not much to report this week.  On November 21, Hafoc had switched back to the west side of Rochester, along highway 390, roughly midway between highways 31 and 104.  Since then, the only signals that have come through have been fuzzy and inaccurate.  Unfortunately, one of the limitations of solar-powered satellite transmitters is that in our climate their effectiveness is compromised in winter both by the shorter daylight hours and the increased cloud cover.  Had Hafoc headed south, odds are we would still be getting more regular reports from him; as it is, we may be in for somewhat sporadic results until the days start getting appreciably longer again.  Of course, he could still migrate and save us the wait...

November 20, 2004:  
Rochester, NY.  Back to familiar ground (or skies) again - as of today, Hafoc has returned to the Cobb's Hill area on the east side of Rochester (see the Nov 1-5 dot on the map ... things are getting a bit crowded and we may have to revamp the map more drastically soon if Hafoc doesn't start moving further afield!).  Since the last update, Hafoc has also spent at least a couple of days on the west side of Rochester, as close as 2 kilometres to the nest site at Kodak on the 17th, and a bit further out toward Elmgrove Road and Highway 31 the day before.

November 14, 2004:  
Irondequoit, NY.  No sooner does Hafoc settle into a pattern than he breaks it again!  The latest report places him now on the north side of Rochester, just a bit west of central Irondequoit.

November 12, 2004:  
South Rochester, NY.  It seems that for now at least, Hafoc is staying on the south side of Rochester.  He has shifted a couple of kilometres southeast from his last position, closer to Henrietta.

November 8, 2004:  
South Rochester, NY.  Hafoc again remained around the Cobb's Hill area for several days, with a clear signal on November 5, and another appearance there this afternoon.  Later on though, he flew southwest a bit, ending up a few kilometres south of the Rochester International Airport, near the junction of highways 15 and 252.  

November 2, 2004:  
East Rochester, NY.  More than anywhere else, it is the area east of Rochester along highway I-490 that Hafoc has been frequenting over the past month, especially within a small radius around Cobb's Hill.  Yesterday he was again just on the west side of this small area, a day after another short foray to the west, which took him to just a few kilometres east of Spencerport.

October 29, 2004:  
Webster, NY.  Hafoc continues to move around, but is now at the point where he is returning to spots he has visited previously.  The last two reports from him have come from the Lake Ontario shoreline north of Webster, the same area where he was on September 20. 

October 24, 2004:  
Barker, NY.  For most of the past week, Hafoc has avoided Rochester itself, at least during the periods when his transmitter was active.  From Pittsford, he moved back the next day to the area northeast of Rochester where he has been a few times previously. Over the next three days we received no clear signals; one day would have been skipped due to the pre-programmed cycle of the transmitter, and the others may have been unsuccessful due to atmospheric or other interference.  At any rate, yesterday we got a couple of clear readings from north of Rochester, roughly midway between Greece and Irondequoit.  By early this morning (and likely in fact, by last night) he was over 70 kilometres to the west, along the Lake Ontario shoreline near Barker.  This is the furthest west that we have documented Hafoc to date. 

October 18, 2004:  
Pittsford, NY.  Hafoc has now been on the southeast side of Rochester for a full week.  His latest location is a couple of kilometres west of Pittsford, but for the most part he has been staying close to I-490, often near Cobb's Hill, but ranging as far west as the Highway 31 / Monroe Avenue interchange with I-490.

October 15, 2004:  
East Rochester, NY.  No report from Hafoc tonight, but we have news from the past few days to share.  On October 11, he moved back up to near the Lake Ontario shoreline, just north of where he was on September 28.  He didn't linger there for long though, returning the next day to the spot along East Avenue where he was from October 8 through October 10.  Yesterday he shifted just a bit south from there to a spot right along I-490 near Cobb's Hill, roughly midway between Monroe Avenue (Hwy 31) and Highway 590.

October 10, 2004:  
East Rochester, NY.  Following his travels to the south and west over the past week, Hafoc has returned to the Rochester area again.  For the past three days, he has been staying in a relatively small area north of East Avenue (Hwy 96), only about 3-4 km east/southeast of the Kodak building nest site.

October 7, 2004:  (updated)
Bergen, NY.  No sooner did I lament Hafoc's lack of movement than he took off on his longest journey to date!  Early yesterday morning, he reported in from around Elmira, New York, just a few kilometres from the Pennsylvania border, and over 140 kilometres southeast of Rochester.  We continued to receive updates from Hafoc's transmitter through to early afternoon, by which time he had moved more than halfway back north to Rochester, a bit west of Seneca Lake, near Gorham.  Then today he was west of Rochester near Bergen, roughly 10 kilometres northeast of Batavia.  We are very curious to see whether these represent the start of further movements by Hafoc, or just an occasional side trip interrupting his residency in Rochester. 

October 4, 2004:
North Rochester, NY.  I've put off the update for a couple of days, hoping to have some more news to convey.  However, the fact is that for another week Hafoc has remained quite stationary in the area north of Rochester.  Two days ago he was over toward Hwy 390, but most days he has been closer to Lake Avenue, usually just a bit south of Hwy 104.  It's too early to say that he has settled into an area, especially with the peak of peregrine migration only approaching now, but it is interesting to see that he has been roaming much less widely since mid-September.

September 28, 2004:
Lake Ontario State Parkway, NY.  Hafoc has remained in a fairly small area over the past week, with almost all reports coming from between Rochester and the Lake Ontario shoreline, and in all but the latest case within 3 kilometres of the Genesee River.  From September 22 through 26, he stayed just south of Highway 104, shifting a bit back and forth to the east and west.  Yesterday was one of the designated "off" days in his transmitter's duty cycle, and today we again had a full range of signals, with the strongest placing him along the Lake Ontario State Parkway near Hwy 390, within a couple of kilometres of the Lake Ontario shoreline.

September 23, 2004:
North Rochester, NY.  Early this morning, we got a very strong signal from Hafoc in the area west of Lake Avenue, a bit south of Hwy 104.  This location is only a bit over 3 km from the nest site, but nonetheless far enough away to indicate clearly that he wasn't right at home last night.  Map update to follow with the next report in a few days.

September 21, 2004:
Rochester, NY.  On September 18, Hafoc shifted a bit north along the Genesee River.  Our next report from him came yesterday, when he was along the Lake Ontario shoreline, directly north of Webster.  Early this morning, he was back in Rochester in the area of the Kodak building.  For over two weeks now, Hafoc has been on a cycle which sees him 'at home' roughly every fourth day, and exploring off in a variety of directions in between.  We'll hopefully see tomorrow whether he resumes his wanderings.

September 17, 2004:
Rochester, NY.  Hafoc has returned to being a relative homebody in recent days.  Both today and on the 13th he was near downtown Rochester, while on September 14 and 15 we received no clear signals, likely due to widespread atmospheric disturbances present at the time.  The only more distant report since the last update is from yesterday, when Hafoc put in an appearance at the mouth of the Genesee River.  To help make Hafoc's most recent location easier to locate on the map, we will be marking it with a red dot from now on.

September 13, 2004:
Hwy 19 & Lake Ontario, NY.  Yesterday we got two good locations for Hafoc.  In the early afternoon Dick Holbert reported picking up his signal with a radio receiver in Brighton NY, southeast of Rochester, then in the evening the satellite report gave us a clear reading from the countryside along Hwy 19 a bit south of Lake Ontario.  These locations are roughly 35 km apart, but that's not far as the peregrine flies, and we have seen recently from his brief visit to Oswego that Hafoc seems to be inclined to make rapid forays away from his home base.

September 10, 2004:
Rochester, NY.  After his big movement a few days ago, Hafoc is now happy spending his time close to the nest site.  He showed up 5km northeast of the nest site on Sept 8.  He was located 5km east of Rochester yesterday, and less than 2km south of the nest site today. 

September 5, 2004:
Oswego, NY.  On Sept 3, Hafoc was once again located in the Rochester area.  The following day, he showed up near Fairport, approximately 18km southeast of his nest site.  Today he moved almost 80km northeast of his previous location, to an area just south of Oswego.  This is his biggest movement so far!   

September 1, 2004:
Webster NY.  Yesterday Hafoc was located approximately 30km southeast of the nest site, between Macedon and Palmyra.  Today he showed up approximately 27km northeast of the nest site, between Webster and Williamson, only a few short kilometers from the shore of Lake Ontario.  It seems he has become quite the explorer!  

August 30, 2004:
Spencerport NY.  The past few days Hafoc has been wandering away from Rochester a bit again.  He moved a bit to the east on August 27, then switched to the west side the next day, reporting from a bit past Spencerport.  However, these movements remain very local, and there have continued to be sightings of him in Rochester too, indicating that the nest site may at least loosely be remaining as a home base for Hafoc as he starts exploring the areas outside the city.

August 26, 2004:
Rochester NY.  Not much change to report over the past few days.  The latest signal from Hafoc came in the middle of last night, and was again in the area of the Kodak headquarters, northwest of downtown Rochester.  Perhaps Hafoc is waiting for another cold front to move through the area before thinking about moving on again.

August 23, 2004:
Rochester NY.  The familiarity of home appears to still be a strong lure for Hafoc.  After making it as far south as Henrietta on August 15, he started heading back north the next day, passing by the Rochester Airport in the early afternoon.  The next report arrived on August 18, from just east of the Kodak building, and all of the strong signals in the days since have been from the area of the nest.  Most significantly, a series of signals last night placed Hafoc on average within 100 metres of the nest box.  Now we await his second departure, and are curious to see whether he will strike out on his own more definitively next time.

August 15, 2004:
Henrietta NY.  Hafoc has continued to make short movements in the area north of Rochester.  On August 12 he moved east along the Lake Ontario shoreline to a bit north of Irondequoit.  Late the next day, the first signal from the subsequent broadcast period indicated that he had shifted to southwest of Irondequoit.  Yesterday was a day which fell entirely within an 'off' cycle for the transmitter - it is programmed to transmit for 10 hours, then rest for 24 hours.  While it would be great to have around-the-clock coverage, the cost for data processing associated with such heavy satellite usage would be unaffordable.  The broadcast cycle being used provides a compromise between cost and coverage, still providing us with locations almost every day.  Today the transmitter was back on for most of the first half of the day.  The strongest of the reports positioned Hafoc just southwest of Henrietta, New York, a bit over 10 kilometres south of Rochester.

August 11, 2004:
Greece NY.  Well, at last we've got some clear movement developing!  On the evening of August 9, Hafoc's transmitter beamed a nice clear signal in from just east of Greece.  While this is still less than ten kilometres from his point of origin in Rochester, it's the first strong evidence we've had of him wandering this far.  Today he has continued his progress a bit further north still, approaching Lake Ontario.  In the days prior to Hafoc starting to shift north, he was still being seen regularly around and on the Kodak building, and on at least one occasion was seen making a kill.  That's a good sign that he has reached the point of independence, and while we wouldn't be surprised to see him return to Rochester again before striking out for more distant destinations, it appears he is now on his own and no longer needs the support of his parents.

August 8, 2004:
Rochester NY.  Hafoc is certainly taking his time with respect to leaving home.  Again over the past week, all of the most accurate reports have been from within a 3 km radius of the nest site.  In fact, the strong signal from the middle of last night placed Hafoc only a few hundred metres west of it.  Observers also continue to report sightings of him in the area, frequently in association with one of his siblings.

August 3, 2004:
Rochester NY.  Last night's report from Hafoc was one of the clearest signals received from his transmitter to date, and it placed him roughly half a kilometres southwest of the nest box at Kodak.  Even with such an accurate reading there is some error involved, nonetheless, the distance away from the box is great enough that we can be reasonably certain he was at least some distance from home last night.  A couple of daytime reports in recent days have put him in the area of Irondequoit, suggesting that he is starting to explore to the north a bit.  We expect to see more such movements in the near future. 

July 30, 2004:
Rochester NY.  Hafoc is taking his time in expanding his horizons.  Again this week he has been seen near the Kodak building on multiple occasions, and most telemetry locations have come from within a couple of kilometres of the nest site.  When will he start to become more adventurous? 

July 24, 2004:
Rochester NY.  Of the many telemetry locations transmitted for Hafoc over the past week, all of those flagged as high quality data have continued to originate from within 4 kilometres of the Kodak tower.  On a couple of days, the strongest signal came from a distance of 10 - 25 kilometres from downtown Rochester, once to the northwest, and another time to the southeast.  However, in both cases the signal was relatively weak.  Given that all of the stronger reports showed Hafoc still staying close to home, we suspect that the more distant readings may at least in part be reflecting some error in resolving Hafoc's location, and that he was in fact still closer to Rochester on those occasions.  However, Hafoc has now been flying for a full month, and we expect that it won't be long before he actually does start exploring more distant areas.

July 15, 2004:
Rochester NY.  The near-daily reports from Hafoc have not yet shown much change.  Signals received during the night tend to locate him at or near the Kodak tower; those from during the day originate from a somewhat larger radius around the nest, reflecting some exploratory flights which appear to be taking him 5 - 10 kilometres away at times.  Overall though, Hafoc has not yet made any significant movements, and local observers are continuing to see him near Kodak or the nearby Genesee River gorge at various times of day. 

July 8, 2004:
Rochester NY.  Local observers continue to spot Hafoc daily within sight of the nest box.  However, there are now periods when not all four of the siblings are in view, suggesting that they are beginning to explore a slightly larger range.  We are continuing to monitor the telemetry data daily, and also welcome the continued reports of observers on the ground who can confirm Hafoc's location directly.

July 4, 2004:
Rochester NY.  Not surprisingly, after just a week and a half out of the nest, Hafoc is still being seen regularly near home by many local observers.  While a couple of his siblings have been grounded and rescued, Hafoc has remained out of trouble.  If his good fortune continues, we expect him to gradually begin taking longer flights, and exploring areas increasingly far from the Kodak building.  We will be monitoring the data closely as reports from the transmitter come in, and will post updates as soon as there is any news of a change in location.

June 23, 2004:
Rochester NY.  Hafoc has become the first of the five young peregrines in the Rochester nest to leave the nest box, and around 8:30 am took his first real flight, soaring briefly out to the south before returning to land on the roof of the nest box.  Later in the day he made some additional flights, and by all accounts is doing very well.  He will likely remain very close to home for the next couple of weeks at least, but an update will be posted in early July on his activities in any case.

June 14, 2004:
Rochester NY.  Hafoc is now just over 30 days old, and will likely not take his first flight for at least another 7 to 10 days.  However, during this period he will be exercising his wings with ever-increasing vigor, strengthening his muscles by the day.  He appears to have quickly adjusted to wearing the harness and transmitter, and by the time he flies away from the nest box for the first time will no doubt be completely used to it.  

As it is unlikely that Hafoc will fly any distance from home during his first week or so in the air, we will begin providing regular updates on his activities in early July.  In the meantime, Hafoc and his siblings can be viewed on the Kodak Birdcam.

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